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  Policies should turn from control to stabilize demand  
  2008/07/03 09:10:42
Shanghai Daily
 
     
 

China should switch its macroeconomic policies from ''controlling demand'' to ''stabilizing demand'' when its economic growth is likely to slow to 10.3 percent this year, a chief economist at the State Information Center, a research unit under the National Development and Reform Commission, said.

Fan Jianping said policy planners should study how to change and manage demand after the May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province.

"The rebuilding works after the earthquake will create new demand and speed up economic growth by about 0.4 percentage point. Otherwise, China's gross domestic product could report a growth of less than 10 percent in the fourth quarter this year," said Fan at a forum in Beijing, according to the China Securities Journal.

China's gross domestic product expanded 10.6 percent in the first three months, cooling from last year's 11.9 percent. Fan expected the first-half year growth at around 10.5 percent, down 1.7 percentage points from the same period a year ago.

But the pace of growth is still within an upward range and ''can help to adjust supply and demand to tame inflation," said Fan. He stressed the necessity to stabilize demand, which includes export, investment as well as consumption, and avoid a sharp volatility.

Fan predicted China's consumer price index, the main gauge of inflation, would be settle at around 7 percent this year, provided there are no more major natural disasters in the rest of the year.

China has been battered by powerful snowstorms in January and February and the 8.0-magnitude earthquake in Sichuan in May.

China's CPI eased to 7.7 percent in May from 8.5 percent in April. Some economists estimated the CPI would keep its downward trend in coming months thanks to an easing in food costs.

The government has set an annual target of controlling CPI under 4.8 percent which Fan viewed as difficult to fulfill.


 
 
     
 
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